With the election schedule for Jammu and Kashmir officially announced, the region stands at a significant political crossroads. All major political parties are actively engaged in intense strategizing, maneuvering through permutations and combinations to secure power after a decade-long gap.
The last assembly elections were held in 2014, marking a significant shift in the region’s political dynamics. The BJP, securing 25 out of the 87 seats, managed to form a coalition government with the PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, despite their stark ideological differences. This alliance, often criticized as an “unholy” partnership, was short-lived, collapsing under the weight of its internal contradictions, leading to the imposition of President’s Rule in the region.
The period since the collapse of the government has been transformative for Jammu and Kashmir. In 2019, the Narendra Modi-led NDA government made a historic move by abrogating Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution. These articles had granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, a provision that had long been a point of contention in Indian politics.
The abrogation was met with fierce opposition from political parties like the Congress, National Conference (NC), and PDP, who warned of widespread unrest and bloodshed. However, the Modi government, under the leadership of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, meticulously planned the operation, reinforcing security forces in large numbers across the region. This strategic deployment ensured that law and order were maintained, preventing the anticipated chaos.
Under President’s Rule, the administration in Jammu and Kashmir took decisive action against elements that posed internal security threats. These included groups that, under the guise of civic activism, were actively collaborating with hostile entities across the border in Pakistan.
The government’s crackdown significantly reduced cross-border terrorism and curtailed pro-Pakistan activities within the region. Stone-pelting incidents, which had become a regular occurrence, were effectively brought under control. Furthermore, the Centre’s rule disrupted the flow of foreign funding and the circulation of counterfeit Indian currency, both of which had been used to finance anti-India activities in the region.
In the past 6-8 years, Jammu and Kashmir, which has long been one of India’s most troubled regions due to its strategic location between hostile neighbours—Pakistan to the west and China to the east—has witnessed substantial development and a return to relative normalcy.
The imposition of President’s Rule not only restored law and order but also revived the tourism industry, which is a crucial pillar of the local economy. The construction of massive infrastructure along the Chinese border, stretching from Ladakh to Uttarakhand, has significantly enhanced India’s military capabilities in the region. Today, Indian troops can rapidly deploy across high-altitude areas of the Himalayas, thanks to new tunnels, roads, and other logistical improvements.
This infrastructure played a crucial role in countering incidents like the Pulwama attack and the standoff in Arunachal Pradesh, where Indian forces were able to effectively thwart Chinese aggression, forcing the adversary to retreat.
With peace slowly returning to Jammu and Kashmir, and the region now divided into two Union Territories for more effective administration, the Election Commission of India has decided to hold elections to restore democratic governance. This decision comes after the Modi government’s strategic move to conduct a delimitation exercise, which has increased the number of assembly seats from 87 to 90. The delimitation process has significantly altered the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, adding seven new seats—six in the Jammu division and one in the Kashmir division.
The impact of this delimitation has been profound, particularly in the Jammu division, which has gained political prominence with the addition of six new seats. The region now has 43 assembly seats, up from 37, addressing long-standing grievances of under-representation, especially in comparison to the Kashmir Valley. This shift has been seen as a corrective measure by the BJP, which has positioned itself as the party that has rectified historical imbalances in the region’s political representation.
However, this delimitation process has not been without controversy. Opposition parties like the National Conference and PDP have accused the BJP of manipulating the process to favour its electoral prospects. These parties argue that the delimitation has been skewed to dilute the influence of the Kashmir Valley, where they have traditionally held sway, in favor of the Jammu division, where the BJP has a stronger base. The BJP, which led in 29 assembly segments in Jammu during the recent Lok Sabha elections, sees this delimitation as an opportunity to further consolidate its position in the region.
The BJP is particularly focused on the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch, where it hopes to capitalize on the newly granted Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari community. This move, along with the recent induction of Gujjar leader Choudhary Zulfkar Ali into the party, is expected to bolster the BJP’s chances in these districts. The party is aiming to secure at least five out of the eight assembly seats in these districts, which would be a significant boost to its overall tally in the Jammu division.
The Congress, which once held a stronghold in Jammu, particularly in Hindu-majority areas, has seen its influence wane over the years. In the 2014 assembly elections, the Congress won 12 seats across Jammu and Kashmir, but notably, none of its Hindu candidates were successful in Jammu’s Hindu-majority constituencies. However, the recent Lok Sabha elections have given the Congress a glimmer of hope. The party led in seven assembly segments, two of which are Hindu-majority, and was a close second to the BJP in two other Hindu-majority seats. This performance has emboldened the Congress, leading it to believe that it can limit the BJP to fewer than 20 seats in Jammu.
It is important to highlight that 34 out of the 43 assembly seats in the Jammu division are either Hindu-majority or where the Hindu vote plays a crucial role. The BJP has set its sights on winning all 34 of these seats, in addition to targeting some Muslim-majority seats in Rajouri and Poonch. The party’s goal is to secure a total of 40 seats in the Jammu division, which would put it in a dominant position in the upcoming assembly elections. However, the Congress, buoyed by its recent performance, is also aiming to capture many of these Hindu-majority seats. The Congress’s decision to join forces with the National Conference could create additional challenges for the BJP, potentially splitting the vote in key constituencies.
As the political battle for Jammu and Kashmir heats up, parties are sparing no effort in finalizing their strategies and campaign plans. This election carries significant weight, not only for the future governance of Jammu and Kashmir but also for its impact on the broader national political landscape. It’s important to note that Jammu and Kashmir is no longer a state but a Union Territory with a legislature—a status intended to be temporary. However, the restoration of full statehood appears to be a long and complex process, dependent on the region’s stability and the central government’s political will.
Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference Party (NCP) and Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have both clearly stated that, if voted back to power, they will work to restore Article 370—a promise that seems unlikely to be fulfilled. The PDP has made this pledge a cornerstone of its electoral platform, while the NCP has only verbally committed to it. The NCP’s pre-poll alliance with the Congress, which has accepted the Supreme Court’s ruling that Article 370 was a temporary provision and that the President has the authority to revoke it, further complicates matters. This contradiction with its new allies, coupled with the agreed-upon 60:40 seat-sharing arrangement, presents a significant challenge for both parties, as some NCP members have already expressed dissent.
On the other hand, the BJP, which secured 25 seats in the 2014 assembly elections, may leverage the contradictions between Congress, the NCP, and the PDP to polarize the Hindu vote, while the Muslim vote risks being split among the other parties. However, the entry of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena could disrupt the BJP’s plans to win over 40 seats in the 90-member assembly.
In that context, the upcoming assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir are set to be a defining moment in the region’s history. The electoral battle is not merely about who will govern the Union Territory but also touches on broader issues of representation, regional balance, and the future of democracy in one of India’s most sensitive and strategically significant regions. As political parties prepare for this crucial contest, the people of Jammu and Kashmir will have a pivotal opportunity to shape their destiny through the power of the ballot.
