Washington: When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, analysts say.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks for the third time this year — this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods.
“We have the confines of a deal with China,” Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland.
Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries, after talks in Geneva and London, have reached a “status quo,” with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump’s second term.
“Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,” Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending.
The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes “there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception” coming out of the talks.
With an eye on a possible leaders’ summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders’ meeting.”
In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders’ summit as well as agreements to address “major irritants,” such as China’s industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said.
Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies.
What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be “the atmosphere” — how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders’ summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said.
