MS Shanker
Eknath Shinde, the leader of the breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena and current Chief Minister of Maharashtra, reportedly demanded a continuation in the top post during a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. According to some media reports, Shinde threatened to offer external support to the BJP-led government if his demand was not met. This alleged stance raises questions about political strategy, leadership dynamics, and the consequences of power politics.
Shinde’s alleged ultimatum echoes a similar strategy once employed by Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena’s previous leader. After the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, Thackeray used his party’s alliance with the BJP as leverage to negotiate the Chief Minister’s position, despite not having the largest share of seats. This maneuver ultimately led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, sidelining the BJP.
Shinde’s rise to power, however, was not through such brinkmanship but rather with the BJP’s backing. His decision to split from the Shiv Sena and align with the BJP was framed as a convergence of ideological beliefs. The BJP, in an unprecedented move, allowed Shinde to take the Chief Minister’s chair, despite Fadnavis’s reservations and stature within the party. Fadnavis, a two-time Chief Minister and a key architect of the BJP’s success in Maharashtra, accepted a demotion to Deputy CM—a move seen as a sacrifice for party unity and strategy.
Shinde’s reported demand appears ill-timed, given the BJP’s commanding position. In the 2024 elections, the BJP secured 132 of the 288 seats, falling short of a majority by just 15-20 seats. This performance, driven by a well-coordinated campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and other senior leaders, solidified the BJP’s influence. Fadnavis’s role in this success cannot be overstated; he remains the party’s most formidable leader in the state, with a strong support base and political clout.
For Shinde to claim sole credit for the alliance’s victory is viewed by many as overreach. Political analysts argue that any attempt to pressure the BJP into conceding the Chief Minister’s position again would backfire. The BJP’s leadership, known for its discipline and strategic thinking, is unlikely to bow to such tactics.
The source of these reports has also come under scrutiny. Some media outlets known for anti-establishment views have been accused of sensationalism. Their reports suggesting internal strife within the BJP-led coalition may be attempts to sow discord. BJP insiders, however, dismiss these narratives as baseless, emphasizing the party’s commitment to maintaining alliance unity.
According to sources, Amit Shah conveyed a clear message to Shinde: patience and cooperation would be rewarded. Shah reportedly offered Shinde a role in the Union Cabinet, allowing him to nominate a senior party member as Deputy Chief Minister if he chooses. The BJP is also firm on retaining key portfolios, particularly Home and Finance, within its control. Ajit Pawar, the NCP leader and current Deputy Chief Minister, appears content with his position, despite initial demands for the Finance Ministry.
Shinde’s position is precarious. Any attempt to break away or destabilize the alliance could lead to political isolation. History has shown that leaders who challenge the BJP often face setbacks. The MVA, comprising the Congress, NCP, and Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, is unlikely to provide a stable alternative. Even if Shinde were to join hands with them, the alliance would be fragile and prone to internal conflicts.
Moreover, Shinde’s own faction could face dissent. Just as he led a rebellion against Thackeray, discontent within his ranks could emerge, particularly if his leadership is seen as a liability rather than an asset.
Eknath Shinde stands at a critical juncture. His political survival hinges on pragmatism and cooperation with the BJP. Any attempt to force the party’s hand could be politically suicidal, leading to the erosion of his influence and support. The BJP, with its disciplined leadership and strategic foresight, is unlikely to tolerate brinkmanship.
In the end, Shinde’s best bet lies in accepting the BJP’s terms and focusing on governance. Any deviation from this path risks not only his political career but also the stability of the ruling coalition. As power politics in Maharashtra continue to unfold, Shinde’s next moves will determine whether he cements his legacy or fades into political obscurity.
