As global geopolitics shift, Bangladesh finds itself in a precarious position—one we foresaw. I previously noted in these very columns that former President Donald Trump might turn up the heat on Bangladesh. Now, that prediction is becoming a reality.
Recent developments highlight a troubling trajectory for the nation, sparking concerns over its economic and political stability. Newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order halting aid to nations deemed unreliable allies, placing Bangladesh firmly in the crosshairs. This decisive action reflects growing distrust and heightened scrutiny of Bangladesh’s caretaker government, led by Mohammad Younus.
President Trump’s executive order, while broadly targeting nations misusing U.S. funding, specifically implicates Bangladesh and Pakistan. The timing is significant, as it follows the dramatic ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s democratically elected government. This political upheaval, reportedly orchestrated by domestic agitators and aided by the military, led to Hasina’s exile to India. The turmoil has left the nation’s economy in disarray, with the caretaker government facing allegations of human rights abuses, including targeted killings of minorities.
Trump’s firm stance against the Younus-led regime reflects his broader foreign policy agenda. His administration has prioritized strengthening ties with India while isolating regimes that undermine democratic norms. The executive order signals that the U.S. will no longer tolerate the misuse of its resources, especially by governments fostering instability.
Since the fall of the Hasina government, Bangladesh’s economy has taken a severe hit. Once a promising example of development in South Asia, the nation now grapples with declining GDP growth, rising inflation, and dwindling foreign reserves. The caretaker government’s policies have exacerbated the crisis, with investors losing confidence and international aid drying up.
The parallels with Pakistan’s economic downfall are striking. Like Pakistan, Bangladesh has increasingly relied on foreign aid to sustain its economy, only to face mounting debt and reduced credibility. The caretaker government’s alliance with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) further complicates its position, as it raises concerns about Bangladesh’s role in fostering regional instability.
India’s response to the crisis in Bangladesh has been measured. While hosting Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi, the Modi government has refrained from direct intervention. This restraint reflects India’s long-term strategy to isolate regimes that threaten regional stability. India’s diplomatic efforts, led by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, have focused on strengthening alliances like the Quad to counterbalance China’s influence in South Asia.
Bangladesh’s caretaker government, meanwhile, has attempted to align with China and Pakistan, a move that risks further alienating its traditional allies. However, as seen with Sri Lanka and Nepal, nations that have flirted with China’s economic overtures often find themselves returning to India for assistance when crises arise. Bangladesh’s current trajectory suggests a similar outcome.
Trump’s warnings extend beyond Bangladesh. He has targeted “deep state” actors and NGOs accused of destabilizing democratic nations. Billionaire George Soros and his affiliated organizations have come under scrutiny for their alleged role in funding protests and fostering unrest in countries like India. Trump’s administration has taken steps to curb the influence of such entities, shutting down operations like the Hindenburg Research group, which targeted Indian business magnate Gautam Adani.
In Bangladesh, the caretaker government’s association with these actors has drawn criticism. Mohammad Younus’s refusal to address minority persecution and his alignment with Pakistan’s military establishment has fuelled accusations of authoritarianism. Trump’s executive order is a clear message to Younus to restore democratic norms and protect minority rights or face further isolation.
The Trump-Modi partnership has emerged as a cornerstone of the new global order. Both leaders share a vision of economic growth, military strength, and democratic resilience. Trump’s promise to end the Russia-Ukraine war and his success in brokering a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas reflect his commitment to global stability.
For India, this partnership offers an opportunity to cement its role as a regional power, if not global. Modi’s foreign policy has effectively isolated Pakistan while countering China’s expansionist ambitions. By supporting Trump’s efforts to hold regimes like Bangladesh’s caretaker government accountable, India can strengthen its influence in South Asia and ensure the region’s stability.
Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The caretaker government’s missteps have eroded international trust and pushed the nation toward economic collapse. Trump’s decision to halt aid is just the beginning of a broader effort to hold rogue regimes accountable. If Mohammad Younus continues to prioritize authoritarian control over democratic reform, Bangladesh risks becoming another “begging bowl” nation, dependent on external aid to survive.
To avoid this fate, Bangladesh must take decisive action to restore democracy, protect minority rights, and rebuild its economy. The international community, led by the U.S. and India, has sent a clear message: stability and progress require accountability and adherence to democratic principles. Whether Bangladesh’s leaders heed this warning remains to be seen.
