The political atmosphere in Karnataka appears deceptively calm, but beneath the surface, tensions simmer with the potential to erupt into a full-blown crisis for the ruling Congress party. For now, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah seems to have retained his seat, having weathered yet another intra-party storm—this time stirred by none other than his deputy and state Congress president, D.K. Shivakumar.
The immediate threat has been doused with a bucket of central intervention—symbolically led by Congress general secretary and Karnataka in-charge Randeep Surjewala, a political lightweight with little leverage in the state’s intricate power dynamics. But whether this ceasefire holds is anyone’s guess.
The irony is hard to miss. It was Shivakumar, not Siddaramaiah, who led the party’s high-voltage 2023 campaign and delivered a clear majority—something Congress hadn’t achieved in Karnataka in nearly a decade. By all accounts, the mandate was as much for Congress as it was a personal endorsement of DKS’s grassroots reach, organisational muscle, and strategic acumen. Naturally, it was expected that the man who won the war would be rewarded with the chief minister’s chair.
Instead, what followed was a classic Congress script—delay, deflect, divide. The high command, wary of regional satraps growing too big for Delhi’s boots, offered a two-and-a-half-year power-sharing formula: Siddaramaiah would go first, DKS would follow. Shivakumar reluctantly agreed, trusting the Gandhis to honour the arrangement when the time came.
That time is now drawing near, and with it, the frustrations of Shivakumar’s loyalists are beginning to boil over. Their recent outbursts are not merely expressions of discontent but signals to the high command: the countdown has begun.
The Congress leadership’s hesitation is rooted in history—and in fear. The memory of Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy’s rise in undivided Andhra Pradesh still haunts the dynasty. YSR, who single-handedly revived the party in 2004 through his 1,500-km padayatra, emerged as a towering figure who could challenge Delhi’s writ. His tragic death in 2009 and the subsequent rebellion by his son Jaganmohan Reddy—who now leads the YSR Congress—remain cautionary tales for 10 Janpath. Many believe that had the Gandhis not tried to curtail YSR’s influence, the party may not have collapsed so spectacularly in Andhra Pradesh.
Shivakumar, with his deep pockets, mass connect, and daredevil image, fits the same mold—another potential regional titan who could one day pose an existential question to the central command. Hence, the reluctance to let him take full control, and the preference for Siddaramaiah, a seasoned but relatively pliant leader who poses no threat to Delhi’s authority.
But this strategy comes at a price. Congress is already battling early signs of anti-incumbency. The five poll guarantees—free power, free bus rides, financial aid to women and unemployed youth—are proving to be fiscal nightmares. The state’s coffers are running dry, and development projects have taken a backseat. Worse, Siddaramaiah’s government has struggled to communicate the benefits effectively, creating a perception that promises were made for votes, not governance.
Recent optics haven’t helped either. The botched felicitation of IPL champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru—meant to be a PR coup—turned into a political farce. With fingers pointed at DKS for stage-managing the event, the move ended up embarrassing the government instead of showcasing unity or competence.
In this backdrop, the demand for leadership change is no longer just a factional issue; it’s becoming a governance issue. If the Congress fails to resolve it decisively—and transparently—it risks a full-blown rebellion that could damage its prospects in both the 2026 civic polls and the 2028 assembly elections.
The dilemma is stark: Replace Siddaramaiah now and risk internal backlash, or deny DKS his promised turn and risk a mutiny. Either way, time is running out for dithering.
In essence, what’s cooking in Karnataka isn’t just a tussle over power-sharing. It’s a test case of whether the Congress high command has learned anything from its repeated failures in states like Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and now even Rajasthan. If it again chooses dynasty over democracy, it may soon find Karnataka slipping from its hands—just as other strongholds have in the past.
