In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump defied pollster predictions, winning the U.S. presidential election over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, whom many believed would become America’s first female president. Much like Narendra Modi’s unexpected rise in India, Trump’s victory calls into question the reliability of mainstream media narratives and poll projections in two of the world’s largest democracies. Despite polls suggesting a strong preference for Harris among women and Indian-American voters, Trump managed to make significant inroads in Democratic strongholds, winning over a surprising number of these key demographic groups. This parallels recent events in India, where political analysts predicted significant gains for the Congress-led INDIA alliance, only to see Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party retain power. Such discrepancies raise questions about how accurately mainstream media and pollsters understand or even portray public sentiment. In both nations, sections of the media seemed more focused on building narratives around certain candidates rather than accurately reflecting the diverse priorities of the electorate. In the U.S., the media assumed that Harris’s Indian heritage would secure a majority of Indian-American support, a narrative that failed to resonate with many voters. Similarly, in India, reports often leaned towards predicting a decline in Modi’s popularity, only to be proven wrong as his base remained loyal and supportive.
A significant factor that may have bolstered Trump’s support among Indian-Americans was his vocal stance on issues affecting South Asia, especially the security of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. Reports suggest that under the Biden administration, U.S. policies in the region have strained relations with Bangladesh’s government, led by Sheikh Hasina. Speculation about the U.S. pressuring Bangladesh for strategic military concessions, like establishing a naval base, has fuelled perceptions of American interference. Many Indian-American voters concerned with regional stability and minority safety saw Trump’s policies as more aligned with their values and concerns. Furthermore, the Biden administration’s pressure on India over issues such as trade with Russia and alleged involvement in foreign intelligence activities added to the dissatisfaction. When India chose not to comply with U.S. sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine invasion, Biden’s administration reportedly saw this as an affront. Indian-American voters with nationalist sentiments seemed to prefer Trump’s straightforward foreign policy approach, as it appeared less intrusive toward India’s own diplomatic stances. The Biden administration’s tacit support for pro-Khalistani voices and the accusation that an ex-Indian intelligence official was involved in a plot to harm separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannu sparked further discontent. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in a parallel move, accused India of involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan advocate, worsening diplomatic ties. Both accusations lacked substantiated evidence but were widely publicized, potentially tainting India’s image without grounds. These narratives seemed intended to cast India in a negative light, but Indian leaders, including Modi, maintained composure, demanding proof and effectively challenging the accusations.
Trump’s relationship with Modi is another aspect that likely contributed to his appeal among Indian-Americans. From the “Howdy, Modi!” event in Texas to the “Namaste Trump” rally in India, the two leaders have publicly displayed mutual admiration and shared values. These symbolic gestures fostered a connection that likely influenced Indian-Americans to view Trump as an ally of their heritage and homeland. In Canada, Trudeau now faces criticism from within his own party for his handling of relations with India, potentially jeopardizing his political future. In contrast, Biden’s actions preceding the U.S. election appear to have backfired, further underscoring a disconnect with Indian-American voters, who ultimately chose Trump’s leadership as more aligned with their community’s values. The 2024 U.S. election underscores that neither media narratives nor pollsters hold the final say in democratic outcomes. The election revealed a significant shift in voter sentiment, showing a preference for leaders who respect each country’s sovereignty and maintain practical, mutually beneficial alliances. As Trump returns to the White House as 47th President, Indian-Americans and their counterparts in India hope for a strengthened U.S.-India relationship under leaders who seem genuinely aligned in both interests and values.