NRI’s Analysis of TS Politics

(D Nagarjuna)

An Indian-origin American who hails from the then Andhra Pradesh, B. P. Raju is a keen observer of politics not only in the US but also in India and Telangana State, in particular. With his analysis, he proves that the globe is a village and one need not be present in Hyderabad to understand the politics around it. 

The entire media including the SM is in his palm and he organized himself in taking the raw material, churning it, and processing it to develop an analytical product that predicts all the possible calculations of how the outcome would be in TS in the 2023 elections scheduled for December. 

Though he visited Telangana a couple of times during the two terms of KCR, he has come up with an understanding of various possible permutations after acquainting himself with conversations involving a wide cross-section of the society, covering both the die-hard supporters of KCR & family and extreme opponents of the same, including some grass-root levels people like a farmer, an auto or a cab driver or for that matter a petty shopkeeper in the heart of Hyderabad city. This is what he has come up with and he feels even if 50% of his analysis proves to be correct, he finds himself well satisfied. His bullet points are as follows:

  • The tacit or clandestine understanding of BJP and BRS is like one bullet killing many birds in one shot.
  • A new acronym BRP may emerge like BRS and BJP which may form the next government in 2023 in Telangana. This may be out rightly rejected by both parties at present though there is every possibility of an outcome like this because of the following reasons – 
  1. KCR struggles with allocating tickets to all sitting MLAs facing stiff competition from those who joined from other party MLAs.
  2. BJP’s struggle to mobilize cadres from other parties and identify candidates for many of the seats.
  3. Loss of momentum for BRS and BJP as Congress returned to power in Karnataka.
  4. The enemy’s enemy is a friend with Congress being a common enemy of BRS and BJP at the state and national level.
  5. BRS’s desperation to avoid Kavitha’s arrest in a liquor scam.
  6. KCR’s sudden silence of criticism of BJP indicated “Kuch Kuch ho raha hai”and to add to that, he declared that Modi is a close friend of his, maybe at a personal level. 
  7. BJP’s move to remove Bandi who is a bitter critic of KCR & family and replace him with soft-spoken Kishan Reddy as state chief also adds strength to the above speculation, even though the former has been moved outwards and upwards which to some extent assuaged the ruffled feelings of party cadre consisting of his die hard supporters. Bandi Sanjay is now the General Secretary of the BJP at the national level.
  8. Every possibility of BJP and KCR having an underhand dealing to let some of BRS sitting or strong contenders and winnable sitting MLAs to join BJP (with blessings from KCR) to ease BRS inner fighting. This may not be understood by the gullible voters but this is how politics is played turning the fortunes of many politicians subjecting them to a snake and ladder political game.
  9. BRS and BJP might align to avoid triangular fights at some segments where Congress is very strong by fielding dummy candidates (BJP dummy where BRS can give a strong fight to Congress and BRS dummy where BJP can give a strong fight to Congress). Karnataka elections necessitate this approach!
  10. Though a remote possibility which at the same time cannot be ruled out, KCR might encourage some of the BRS sitting MLAs (Malla Reddy, etc) who are facing ED/IT/CBI investigations to join BJP to safeguard their financial interests and at the same time satisfy other strong contenders to minimize local anti-incumbency. 
  11. Questions might arise whether Etela, Rajagopal Reddy, etc will align for this as they are dead against KCR. The answer to that is an underhand agreement that KCR hands over reigns to KTR as CM under BJP+BRS with BC deputy CM (to Eatala and a couple of powerful portfolios to money-rich BJP leaders like Rajagopal Reddy.) 

 B.P. Raju nevertheless has a couple of riders to his analysis mentioned above. Initially, both parties would be giving a picture of being totally at loggerheads, and as a post-poll arrangement, the following things are possible.

  • Those disgruntled leaders who left Congress and BRS on the ground of not tolerating the Dora ahankara(arrogance) will be doctored by BJP to say that the party is not against BRS though against KCR but OK with KTR due to his humble nature. 
  • Last but not least, above all BJP can sing the song “Congress hatao Desh ko Bachav” to join a post-poll joint government formation with BRS. This reminds us of how BJP dealt with once the bitterest enemies like the NCP and the split part of Thackeray’s party. They both are in government now to the point of relegating the most powerful Fadnavis. 

A good number of observations made by the analyst may work out as predicted but the parting shot is given by the ubiquitous voter who always keeps his card closest to his heart and the outcome may spring surprises or shocks to the two conspiring parties. And who knows, if Congress becomes a shocker, though it is not predictable under the dispensation of Revanth Reddy.