The question of whether seismologists worldwide can develop effective earthquake warning systems remains contentious. While scientists have made significant strides in cyclone predictions, earthquake forecasting continues to elude them. Yet, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called upon Indian scientists to focus on creating earthquake warning systems, highlighting the advancements in weather science that have mitigated losses from natural disasters. His remarks came during the 150th-anniversary celebration of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has launched initiatives like ‘Mission Mausam’ to enhance weather surveillance with cutting-edge technologies. Earthquakes are sudden, often devastating phenomena caused by the shifting or breaking of tectonic plates along fault lines, releasing energy that shakes the Earth’s surface. Their impacts can be catastrophic, leading to collapsed buildings, tsunamis, and landslides, resulting in significant loss of life and property. The potential benefits of accurate earthquake prediction are immense—saving lives, reducing injuries, and protecting infrastructure. However, predicting earthquakes remains a formidable scientific challenge. Seismologists rely on seismic waves on recording devices called seismometers to study ground movements. Despite advances in understanding seismic activity, developing reliable prediction models is an ongoing scientific endeavour.
The countries that are located along the tectonic plate boundaries are seismically very active, For example the Himalaya region of the Alpide-Himalayan belt is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Some of the examples of countries that occur along plate boundaries are India, Iran, Turkey, China, Burma, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Chile and have experienced the most devastating earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 8 claiming thousands of human lives and loss to infrastructure. Historically, humanity has sought ways to understand these earthquakes and often attributed these natural disasters to supernatural forces, relying on signs like unusual animal behaviour or weather patterns. The prediction of earthquakes is being pursued by scientists all over the world, but none have succeeded so far. There are some claims of earthquake prediction based on earthquake precursory phenomena like abnormal animal behaviour, changes in seismic wave velocities, foreshocks, emission of radon gas, changes in groundwater levels, and several others. However, these precursors or indicators have often proved unreliable and no short-term prediction mentioning earthquake magnitude, place, and time has been made successfully anywhere in the world.
The late 19th and early 20th centuries marked the advent of modern seismology, revolutionizing earthquake studies. The invention of the seismograph, comprising both the sensor called a seismometer and a recording device have provided valuable data on Earth vibrations. Unlike historical methods relying on anecdotal evidence, the seismograph provided precise, real-time data on seismic waves, magnitudes, and epicenters. This technology enabled seismologists to identify high-risk areas, guiding urban planning and community preparedness. Despite these advancements, predicting the exact time and location of an earthquake remains beyond scientific capability. Earthquakes are influenced by complex geological factors, making their occurrence irregular and unpredictable. Nonetheless, progress has been made in developing early warning systems in most earthquake-prone countries like Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and a few others. These warning systems provide data after a major earthquake has occurred and depending on the distance of the earthquake source or the epicenter provide a lead time of a few tens of seconds to issue alerts. These kinds of warning systems are useful in countries where there is a lot of automation in public transport like bullet trains, underground metros, nuclear energy plants, and other critical structures as the lead time for alerts is very short but because of automation, these utilities can be shut down and lives can be saved. Major states in northern India are in seismic zone V, the highest vulnerability region to earthquakes, are in the close vicinity of the Himalayan belt and northeast India, and face the highest risk. Prime Minister Modi’s appeal to Indian scientists to innovate in earthquake warning technologies is both timely and ambitious. Drawing parallels to India’s remarkable achievement in developing indigenous vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic, he underscored the nation’s capacity for scientific breakthroughs. However, the challenges of earthquake prediction are vastly different. Unlike diseases, where patterns can be studied in a laboratory over time, seismic activity occurs deep inside the Earth, away from direct observations and hence, the unpredictability. Though there is ongoing research in this area, still we are far from success.
India is on the forefront of seismological research and several monitoring networks are in place. But looking at the size of our country, we need several more networks if we have to make any breakthrough. Funding and trained manpower in seismology in India is meagre and need to be boosted. For example, after the magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Sumatra, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India experienced a great tsunami on 26 December 2004 that claimed more than 16,000 lives and an equal number missing. Earthquakes that occur below the oceans create such huge tsunamis. This was a challenge thrown to Indian scientists who rose to the occasion and established a Tsunami Early Warning Centre at INCOIS, Hyderabad in 2007 with all indigenous efforts. Today, this centre provides tsunami early warning with a lead time of at least one and a half hour along the east coast of India. India has succeeded in providing early warning for tsunamis because these are caused by undersea earthquakes, but predicting earthquakes deep down the earth is still a cherished dream. These efforts aim to strengthen India’s resilience against earthquakes and contribute to global seismological advancements. The pursuit of an effective earthquake warning system is undoubtedly one of the toughest challenges for the scientific community. While significant hurdles remain, continued research, international collaboration, and advancements in technology hold promise and needs government backing and support. Early warning systems, improved risk assessments, and community preparedness can collectively minimize the devastating impacts of earthquakes. Prime Minister Modi’s call to action serves as a rallying cry for Indian scientists to push the boundaries of seismology. As the nation’s researchers work alongside their global counterparts, the dream of building a reliable earthquake warning system, though distant, is not unattainable. By combining innovative technologies, global expertise, and unwavering determination, India has the potential to lead in addressing one of humanity’s most enduring natural challenges.