MS Shanker
As the campaign dust settles and Delhi gears up for the assembly polls, the political landscape appears tilted in favor of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s final rally at Ramakrishnapuram exuded confidence, underscoring the party’s well-oiled campaign machinery. With over a decade in power, Modi remains the BJP’s most charismatic leader. Supporting him are senior party figures like Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, JP Nadda, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The BJP’s aggressive push, bolstered by regional allies like Chandrababu Naidu, signals a strong electoral strategy to consolidate power in Delhi.
The BJP’s campaign has been methodically executed, leveraging top ministers and chief ministers to appeal to diverse voter groups. Outreach efforts targeted South Indian communities in Delhi, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy wooing Tamil, Telugu, and Kannada-speaking voters. Additionally, Modi’s repeated assurances on continuing welfare schemes—despite the party’s traditional stance against freebies—reflect a strategic shift to counter AAP’s populist appeal.
While the NDA appears united, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s absence from the campaign has not significantly affected BJP’s momentum. The broader alliance has outmaneuvered the Congress-led INDIA bloc, with internal cracks—particularly between AAP and Congress—further weakening the opposition. Congress’s reluctance to acknowledge its declining influence in Delhi has left the party directionless, making AAP the default contender against the BJP.
Once a dominant force in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) finds itself in an existential crisis. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who once thrived on anti-establishment rhetoric, appears to have lost credibility. His allegations—ranging from BJP-led ‘genocide’ claims to accusations of poisoned Yamuna water—have failed to resonate with voters. Despite three consecutive assembly victories, AAP has struggled to translate its success into national elections, with Delhi’s electorate consistently choosing the BJP in Lok Sabha polls since 2014.
AAP’s governance model, built on populist measures and confrontational politics, now faces diminishing returns. Welfare schemes like free electricity and water, once electoral game-changers, are now perceived as mismanaged, eroding public trust. BJP’s pledge to maintain key welfare benefits, if elected, further neutralizes AAP’s traditional appeal.
Once a formidable force, the Congress remains a non-factor in this election. Repeated failures at state and national levels underscore its declining relevance. Rahul Gandhi’s inability to galvanize the party has left Congress without a coherent strategy. With no significant stake in Delhi, its alliance with AAP remains fragile and largely ineffective.
Barring any last-minute surprises, the BJP appears set for a decisive victory in Delhi. The 2025 Union Budget concessions, including a tax waiver for the middle class up to Rs 12 lakh, and the successful conduct of the Maha Kumbh Mela are likely to consolidate its support base. The event, drawing over 40 crore Hindu devotees for a sacred dip at Triveni Sangam, holds significant electoral weight. However, the unfortunate stampede deaths of 15-20 devotees and the Samajwadi Party’s uncharitable statements could cost AAP more than its ally’s misstep.
A disciplined campaign, strategic alliances, and Modi’s personal credibility have given the BJP a clear edge. Meanwhile, AAP faces an uphill battle, with its governance record under scrutiny and Kejriwal’s political capital waning. If current trends hold, Delhi may witness a political shift that signals the beginning of the end for AAP’s dominance in the capital.
The writing on the wall is clear: the BJP is set to sweep the Delhi assembly polls, defying initial projections and reshaping the capital’s political landscape.