Climate change to push 30 per cent species over tipping points: Study
New Delhi: Climate change is likely to abruptly push up to 30 per cent species over tipping points as their geographic ranges reach unforeseen temperatures, according to a study.
The researchers found that if the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius, 15 per cent of species they studied will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30 per cent of their existing geographic range in a single decade.
However, this doubles to 30 per cent of species at 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming, they said.
An international team of researchers from UCL, University of Cape Town, University of Connecticut, and University at Buffalo made this possible by examining data from an extensive list of more than 35,000 animal species.
This list included a diverse range of species, including mammals, amphibians, reptiles, birds, corals, fish, cephalopods, plankton, and seagrasses. The data covered all continents and ocean basins and was studied alongside climate projections running up to 2100.
The researchers’ primary focus was on determining when areas within each species’ geographic range would cross a crucial threshold of thermal exposure.
They defined this as a period of five consecutive years where temperatures consistently surpass the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species across its geographic range over recent history (1850-2014).
Crossing this thermal exposure threshold doesn’t spell instant doom for the species, but it certainly rings alarm bells. There is no substantial evidence that these species could survive the higher temperatures. This means that many species could face an abrupt loss of habitat due to future climate change.
The results revealed a worrying trend. For many animals, the thermal exposure threshold is likely to be crossed within the same decade for much of their geographic range.
“Climate change isn’t likely to make environments gradually more challenging for animals to survive in. Rather, large portions of their geographic range are likely to become unfamiliarly hot in a short span of time,” said study lead author Dr. Alex Pigot.
“While some animals may endure these higher temperatures, many others will need to relocate to cooler regions or evolve to adapt, something they likely can’t achieve within such short timeframes.”
The study also underscored the devastating impact of global warming. If the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius, 15 percent of studied species will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30 percent of their existing geographic range in a single decade. However, this risk doubles to 30 percent of species at 2.5 degrees of warming.
The study also underscored the devastating impact of global warming. If the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius, 15 percent of studied species will be at risk of experiencing unfamiliarly hot temperatures across at least 30 percent of their existing geographic range in a single decade. However, this risk doubles to 30 percent of species at 2.5 degrees of warming.
“Our study is a stark reminder of the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions to alleviate the harmful effects climate change is inflicting on animals and plants, and to avert a massive extinction crisis,” said Dr. Pigot.
The findings from this study could aid in directing conservation efforts by providing an early warning system to pinpoint when and where particular animals are likely to be at risk.
“Previously, we had snapshots showing the impact of climate change. But now, our data is more like a film, where you can see the changes unfold over time. This shows that for many species the risk is a bit like everything, everywhere, all at once,” said study co-author Dr. Christopher Trisos.
“By animating this process, we hope to direct conservation efforts before it’s too late, while also showing the potentially catastrophic consequences of letting climate change continue unchecked.”
