MS Shanker
Fissures within the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) have become impossible to ignore. Whether it is the rift between AAP and Congress in the Delhi Assembly elections or Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction deciding to contest the BMC elections solo, the alliance is visibly crumbling. The most telling sign is that four key leaders associated with the bloc have either hinted at its disintegration or openly questioned its relevance.
Adding to this, Congress media in-charge Pawan Khera recently admitted that INDIA was formed solely for the Lok Sabha elections, dismissing concerns over allies criticizing Rahul Gandhi. Even RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav echoed this sentiment. Despite this, some alliance members are still awaiting an official confirmation on its future.
When the INDIA alliance was established in Bengaluru in July 2023, it brought together 26 parties to challenge the BJP-led NDA in key states such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar. The strategy seemed to pay off—BJP failed to secure a majority on its own, with NDA winning 296 seats while INDIA bagged 230.
However, just eight months later, the alliance appears on the verge of collapse. The reasons behind this unravelling can be traced to four key factors:
- The cracks in the alliance first became apparent after the Haryana Assembly elections, where Congress lost a winnable battle due to its inflexible stance. Senior RJD leader Shivanand Tiwari noted that Congress’s failure to accommodate allies fueled resentment and sparked demands for new leadership within the coalition.
- The seat-sharing disputes in Uttar Pradesh further deepened the divide. Akhilesh Yadav, a key INDIA ally, announced candidates for by-elections without consulting Congress. Out of 10 proposed seats, only two were allocated to Congress—a clear sign of diminishing trust between allies.
- A major turning point was Congress’s reaction after the Lok Sabha elections. Emboldened by its near-doubling of seat count, Congress took an increasingly rigid approach, particularly in Maharashtra, where it demanded more seats despite its weak ground presence. One alliance leader accused Congress of prioritizing expansion over coalition harmony.
- Before the INDIA alliance was formed, Congress consulted allies before raising issues in Parliament. However, this practice ended during the winter session, with Congress leaders acting independently. This shift alienated partners like the Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, and NCP, who openly opposed Congress on issues such as its rigid stance on industrialist Gautam Adani. The Congress, in turn, grew frustrated with its allies’ silence on the Adani issue, perceiving their lack of support as a betrayal.
Congress’s aggressive push for a larger role in states where it has limited influence has only fueled tensions. Its solo campaign in Haryana backfired, and its demands for a bigger share in Maharashtra met resistance. Now, allies like RJD in Bihar and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal fear similar tactics in upcoming elections in 2025 and 2026.
Smaller parties argue that Congress should adopt a model similar to the NDA, where regional parties lead in their respective strongholds—TDP in Andhra Pradesh and JD(U) in Bihar. However, Congress seems unwilling to relinquish control, further alienating its partners.
Since its inception, INDIA alliance has struggled with a leadership vacuum. Despite Mamata Banerjee expressing interest in leading the bloc, Congress remained non-committal. Additionally, the alliance has failed to establish even a basic operational framework, such as setting up a central office in Delhi.
While an official announcement on the alliance’s future is still pending, the signs are clear—the INDIA coalition is teetering on the edge of collapse. With internal discord, leadership disputes, and seat-sharing conflicts, the unity that once posed a serious challenge to the BJP is now disintegrating. Whether a formal split occurs or the alliance limps forward in name only, the vision of a cohesive opposition appears increasingly distant.
