The northeastern state of Manipur has been engulfed in ethnic violence for the past 21 months. With the recent resignation of BJP Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, there is a renewed sense of hope for peace. However, the imposition of President’s Rule raises questions about whether it is a temporary administrative measure or a strategic move to restore stability.
The opposition has long criticized the Modi government’s handling of the crisis, accusing it of failing to contain ethnic tensions. Despite this, the BJP-led NDA government retained power at the Center and secured victories in several state assembly elections. However, the party’s inability to elect a new leader in Manipur within the stipulated timeframe led to the President’s Rule, prompting speculation that this was a calculated move. With Congress lacking the strength to stake a claim for government formation, the NDA government seemingly saw an opportunity to take direct control.
Another factor influencing this decision could be the growing unrest in neighboring Myanmar, where the Arakan Army has taken control of Rakhine province. Given Manipur’s strategic location, centralizing governance under President’s Rule may have been deemed necessary to prevent further destabilization.
The immediate priority under the President’s Rule should be re-establishing communication between the warring Meitei and Kuki communities. The deep mistrust between these groups has exacerbated the crisis, making dialogue critical. Additionally, the disarmament of both communities remains a major challenge. Thousands of weapons looted from security forces must be retrieved, and those responsible for the theft must be held accountable.
Since the outbreak of violence in May 2023, approximately 250 people have been killed, and around 60,000 have been displaced. While security forces have arrested 625 individuals and registered over 12,000 FIRs, only 3,000 of the stolen weapons have been recovered. The conflict initially erupted when the Kuki and Naga communities protested against granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Meitei community, fearing increased dominance in governance and resource allocation.
Biren Singh’s resignation came after months of mounting pressure, including leaked audio recordings allegedly implicating him in inciting violence. The Supreme Court has ordered a forensic examination of these recordings, and the findings could further complicate the political landscape. Singh’s departure was not a voluntary act of accountability but rather a strategic move to shield the party from further damage. However, the delay in his resignation has already tarnished the government’s credibility.
Despite his exit, the fundamental question remains: Will a leadership change significantly alter the situation? The Meitei-Kuki divide has only deepened, and unless proactive steps are taken to rebuild trust, the cycle of violence may persist. The central government’s responsibility is now to ensure justice and foster peace.
One of the major concerns following President’s Rule is the postponement of the budget session, raising speculation about its possible extension. While the Meitei and Kuki communities remain at odds over demands for separate administrative structures, restoring law and order should take precedence. Many displaced individuals still live in relief camps, and efforts must be made to reintegrate them into society with confidence in the rule of law.
Another pressing issue is the militarization of civilian society. Both communities have formed armed groups, with some members calling themselves “village volunteers” while wielding looted police weapons. Previous attempts to disarm these groups have largely failed, and allegations of bias within security forces have further complicated the situation. For peace to be sustainable, law enforcement agencies must regain public trust through impartial action.
As the President’s Rule provides an opportunity for the central government to de-escalate tensions and take corrective measures, efforts have begun to address the humanitarian crisis by ensuring adequate rehabilitation for the displaced. The government is also overseeing security forces to act decisively in disarming armed groups and insurgents operating in the state.
The impact of the President’s Rule is already visible. Since its imposition on February 13, authorities in Manipur have arrested twelve militants in a major operation. Members of the Kuki National Army (KNA) and the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-PWG) were apprehended, and a significant arms cache was seized.
However, a larger concern remains—will the scheduled assembly elections proceed as planned, or are they likely to be deferred? Given the current instability, elections can only take place if a fear-free environment is established. Reports indicate that the Home Ministry is working to restore law and order before any political process resumes. It is also focused on ensuring transparency and accountability by bridging the trust deficit between the government and the people.
Manipur now stands at a critical juncture, much like other northeastern states have in the past. While the President’s Rule offers temporary stability, the Modi government appears to have outlined a long-term peace plan to heal ethnic divisions, ensure justice, and restore democratic governance. The Centre is determined to steer Manipur toward lasting peace and break the cycle of violence.
