Donald Trump’s politics have never been subtle. It is coercive, transactional, and unapologetically destabilising. When he threatens Iran today with military action, sanctions, and economic strangulation under the familiar pretext of “regime behaviour,” the world would be naïve to see it as an isolated episode. Iran is merely the current theatre. The method—pressure, humiliation, internal unrest, and regime destabilisation—has a familiar signature. And India would do well to read the warning signs. Trump’s open threat to unleash military force against Iran, allegedly to curb unrest but in effect to engineer regime change—hand in glove with Israel’s Mossad and the American deep state—raises an uncomfortable question: is India next on the pressure map? Narendra Modi’s India, after all, refuses to behave like a pliant client state. It buys Russian oil, maintains strategic ties with Iran, asserts autonomy in global forums, and rejects Western lectures on democracy and human rights. For Trump, such defiance is unforgivable. The playbook is not new. Iran is being squeezed through sanctions, tariffs, threats against its trading partners, and psychological warfare. Trump’s latest warning—that countries dealing with Iran will face an additional 25 percent tariff—is less about Iran and more about disciplining the rest of the world. It is economic bullying masquerading as diplomacy. And India is squarely in the crosshairs. India’s bilateral trade with Iran may appear modest—$1.34 billion in the first ten months of 2025—but its strategic significance far outweighs the numbers. Iranian oil, the Chabahar port, and regional connectivity are vital to India’s long-term interests in Central Asia and beyond. Trump knows this. Just as he knows India is already under scrutiny for purchasing Russian oil, attracting a cumulative 50 percent tariff threat. This is not coincidence; it is calibrated pressure. More worrying is the political dimension. Trump’s hostility towards Modi is not merely policy-driven; it is ideological. Modi represents a nationalist, civilisational, sovereign India—precisely the kind of leadership the global liberal establishment despises. In that sense, Trump’s methods against Iran find disturbing echoes in the narratives pushed within India by a discredited Opposition that has failed repeatedly at the ballot box. The alignment—whether organic or encouraged—between external pressure and internal disruption cannot be ignored.
From Ladakh to global media campaigns, India has already experienced attempts to corner, embarrass, and destabilise the Modi government. Each time, the strategy has collapsed against electoral legitimacy and public confidence. But the threat has not vanished; it has merely evolved. Economic coercion, narrative warfare, and diplomatic isolation are the new weapons of choice. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow US airspace usage for any military action against Iran is telling. Even America’s traditional allies are uneasy with Trump’s recklessness. Gulf capitals are scrambling to prevent a wider conflagration, while the United Nations watches helplessly—paralysed, compromised, and overly dependent on US funding. If ever there was a case for urgent UN reform, this is it. An institution headquartered on American soil cannot credibly arbitrate conflicts when Washington itself is the principal disruptor. Iran’s trade map further exposes Trump’s dilemma. China absorbs over 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil. Turkey, the UAE, Iraq, and East Asia remain key partners. Even Germany features prominently. Trump’s threat, therefore, is not targeted—it is global. And when coercion is applied indiscriminately, resistance inevitably follows. For India, the lesson is stark. Strategic autonomy comes with a cost—and that cost is pressure from powers accustomed to obedience. Trump’s Iran gambit is a rehearsal, a warning shot to all independent actors. Indians must remain vigilant against manufactured outrage, anti-national narratives, and internal sabotage masquerading as dissent. Narendra Modi’s government has so far weathered these storms with resolve. But the challenge ahead is larger. This is not merely about Iran or tariffs. It is about whether India will submit to intimidation—or stand firm as a sovereign power shaping its own destiny. History suggests Modi will choose the latter. The nation must ensure it stands with him.
